Catalina Floor Coverings Industry Outlook 2025

FLOOR COVERINGS INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2025

Release Date: January 2025
Catalina offers an Outlook Issue each January to provide insights into the factors that will drive sales for the year. Dollar and square foot sales estimates are provided for each industry sector and product line. The Outlook Issue will also include estimates of sourcing from domestic- and foreign-based manufacturers, as well as sales estimates by end-use market by product. In addition, a separate section features estimates of new home construction, existing home sales, and non-residential building construction spending, and how these factors, as well as interest rates will affect flooring demand over the year.

Catalina investigates market trends for wall-to-wall carpet, carpet tile, area rugs, solid and engineered wood flooring, ceramic and stone tile, LVT by product, other vinyl tile, vinyl sheet, other resilient flooring, and laminate flooring. Each page will assist the floor covering executive benefit from changing consumer preferences, improve plant efficiency, penetrate end-use markets, exploit world market growth, and plan for 2024 and beyond. Add a corporate electronic use license so your entire team can make use of this in-depth database.
Catalina Reports contain timely data that allows users to evaluate market size, growth potential, profitability, market share, and the competitive environment. So, turn to a Catalina Report when developing strategies to take advantage of a changing industry product mix; trends in the builder, residential replacement, and non-residential markets; export sales opportunities; and strategies to increase market share and profitability.

The table of contents shows the significant data and information included in this report. Each section is summarized to clearly point to the pertinent industry trends. Look it over, fill out the order coupon and receive your Catalina Report promptly. You will find it a valuable planning tool.

SUBJECT MATTER

U.S. FLOOR COVERINGS INDUSTRY AND PRODUCT TRENDS (1997-2025 estimates and 2025-2030 forecasts)

• Market sales in dollars and square feet, market product mix, and average prices by product sector:
  • Wall-to-wall carpet
  • Carpet tile
  • Area rugs
  • Wood flooring
  • Ceramic tile
  • Stone flooring
  • LVT and by type: SPC, WPC, and flexible
  • Other vinyl tile
  • Vinyl sheet
  • Other resilient flooring
  • Laminate flooring
  • Auto and aircraft carpeting
  • Tufted artificial grass

U.S. INDUSTRY SHIPMENTS BY PRODUCT AND PRICE TRENDS (1997-2025)

• Carpet and area rugs: woven versus tufted
• Carpet mill production index
• Vinyl tile
• Wood flooring: solid and engineered
• Vinyl sheet
• Ceramic tile
• Laminate flooring
• Other resilient flooring

U.S. IMPORT BY PRODUCT AND PRICE TRENDS (1997-2025)

• Import shipments by flooring material
• Imports’ share of U.S. sales
• Import price trends
• Sourcing by country of origin
• Import tariff charges

END-USE MARKET PURCHASES (1997-2025)

• Floor coverings purchases by market:
  • Home builders
  • Manufactured home producers
  • Residential replacement
  • New nonresidential
  • Commercial contract
  • Transportation equipment manufacturers
• Share of flooring purchases by material by end-use market

FACTORS DRIVING U.S. FLOOR COVERINGS DEMAND (1997-2025)

• Residential and non-residential building construction spending
• Housing starts, permits, and factory-built homes
• Size and price of new homes
• Square feet of new homes built
• Existing home sales trends
• Number of new and replacement kitchens and bathrooms
• Interest rates and personal income
• Residential remodeling spending and building material retailer sales
• Non-residential construction spending by building type

QUARTERLY FACTOR TRENDS (2019-2025)

• Mortgage interest rates
• Housing Demand
• Square Foot Flooring Sales

ANNUAL FACTOR FORECASTS (1997-2030)

• Mortgage Interest Rates, Housing Demand, and Square Foot Housing Built Residential
• Percent Sales by End-Use Markets: Builders, Residential Replacement, and Transportation

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION
Summary of Major Findings
Current Situation and Scope
Assumptions

U.S. FLOOR COVERINGS INDUSTRY SALES ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS (SECTION 1)
The Recovery Could Start in 2024
Five-Year Industry Outlook

U.S. FLOOR COVERINGS SALES ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS BY SECTOR (SECTION 1)
Carpet and Area Rugs
Ceramic and Stone Tile
Wood Flooring
Luxury Vinyl Tile
Vinyl Sheet and Other Resilient Flooring
Laminate Flooring

U.S. SOURCE OF SUPPLY (SECTIONS 2 AND 3)
Total Industry Supply
Sourcing by Product Sector

U.S. END-USE MARKETS (SECTION 4)
End-Use Market Purchases 2024
Five-Year End-Use Market Outlook
End-Use Market Purchases by Product Sector

 

SECTION TABLES AND DATA ANALYSIS

Section 1: U.S. Floor Coverings Industry and Product Sales Estimates and Forecasts, 1997-2030
Table 1-1: Total U.S. Dollar and Square Foot Floor Coverings Sales
Table 1-2: U.S Floor Coverings Dollar Sales by Product
Table 1-3: Percent Total U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Sales by Product
Table 1-4: U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Sales by Product
Table 1-5: Percent Total U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Sales by Product
Table 1-6: Average Value Per Square Foot of U.S. Floor Coverings by Product
Table 1-7: U.S. LVT Sales by Product Type

Section 2: U.S. Floor Coverings Factory Shipments, 1997-2025
Table 2-1: Total U.S. Floor Coverings Factory Shipments
Table 2-2: U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Factory Shipments by Product
Table 2-3: U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Factory Shipments by Product
Table 2-4: Average Value Per Square Foot of Floor Coverings Shipped From a U.S. Plant by Product
Table 2-5: U.S. Carpet and Rug Production Index

Section 3: U.S. Floor Coverings Imports, 1997-2025
Table 3-1: Total U.S. Floor Coverings Imports
Table 3-2: Imports’ Share of U.S. Floor Coverings Sales
Table 3-3: U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Imports by Product
Table 3-4: U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Imports by Product
Table 3-5: Average Value Per Square Foot Imported by Product
Table 3-6: Imports’ Share of Dollar U.S. Floor Coverings Sales by Product
Table 3-7: Imports’ Share of Square Foot U.S. Floor Coverings Sales by Product
Table 3-8: Share of U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Imports by Country of Origin

Section 4: U.S. Floor Coverings End-Use Market Purchases, 1997-2025
Table 4-1: Dollar Floor Coverings Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-2: End-Use Market Purchases Percent Total U.S. Floor Coverings Sales
Table 4-3: Carpet and Area Rug Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-4: Wood Flooring Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-5: Ceramic Floor and Wall Tile Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-6: Resilient Flooring Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-7: Laminate Flooring Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-8: Stone Floor and Wall Tile Purchases by End-Use Market

Section 5: Factors Driving U.S. Demand, 1997-2025
Table 5-1: U.S. Building Construction Spending
Table 5-2: U.S. Housing Construction Trends
Table 5-3: Square Feet of New U.S. Housing Constructed
Table 5-4: Percent Total New U.S. Single-family Houses Sold by Sales Price
Table 5-5: U.S. Existing Home Sales
Table 5-6: U.S. Residential Kitchen and Bathroom Installations
Table 5-7: Other Factors Driving Residential Demand
Table 5-8: U.S. Non-residential Building Construction Spending by Building Type

Section 6: Quarterly Growth of U.S. Interest Rates, Housing Demand, and Flooring Sales, 2019-2025

Section 7: U.S. End-Use Market Share, Interest Rate, and Housing Demand Forecasts, 1997-2030
Table 7-1: Factors Driving Residential Demand
Table 7-2: Percent Total Floor Coverings Sales by End-Use Market

 

ABSTRACT FOR THE FLOOR COVERINGS INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2025: JANUARY 2025

SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS
U.S. floor coverings manufacturer sales (domestic shipments minus exports plus imports) could begin to recover in 2025 after declining the two previous years. The rebound, however, could be sluggish since mortgage rates remain relatively high despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. The recovery could be strongest in the builder market. The builder market is expected to lead floor coverings sales growth during 2025, since the builder market could benefit from the lack of existing homes for sale and pent-up demand for housing caused by builders’ inability to keep up with the growth of households over the past decade. The commercial market is expected to provide growing sales opportunities in 2025, however, at moderating rates. On the other hand, the consumer market could remain weak since existing home sales remain sluggish. Existing home sales and consumer floor coverings spending will strengthen when the decline in mortgage rates mirrors the decline in the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Total floor covering dollar sales are projected to increase close to a 4.0% compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030, and square foot sales are forecast to rise about 2.0% annually.

SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
Catalina provides an outlook for 2025 and forecast from 2026 to 2030, inclusively, by tracking the cyclical nature of the U.S. floor coverings industry. Floor covering demand is highly correlated with the cycles in interest rates and housing demand. Historically, interest rate movements affect housing (new construction, resales, and manufactured homes) demand, which in turn offers insight into the direction of U.S. floor covering sales. The movement in interest rates also affects commercial market sales and shipments to transportation equipment manufacturers. The goal of this industry investigation is to determine how anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will affect U.S. housing demand and floor covering sales during 2025 and beyond. Federal Reserve actions this year could begin a new downward cycle in interest rates over the next few years as inflation pressures subside. As part of this analysis, Catalina provides 2025 sales estimates by end-use market (builders, consumers, businesses, and transportation equipment manufacturers) for each industry sector. Sourcing from U.S.-and foreign-based suppliers are also evaluated. In addition, Catalina uses our projections for interest rates and housing demand to forecast sales by product for all years from 2026 to 2030.

FLOORING SECTOR SALES AND SOURCE OF SUPPLY
Catalina Research uncovered these findings in our in-depth report on U.S. floor coverings industry trends and an analysis of end-use markets. U.S. shipments, exports, imports, and price trends are evaluated for wall-to-wall carpet, carpet tile, and area rugs; solid and engineered wood flooring; ceramic and stone tile; LVT by product, other vinyl tile, vinyl sheet, other resilient flooring; and laminate flooring. Data is in dollars and square feet. Import sales are tracked by product by major country of origin, which uncover the inroads made by Chinese and other foreign-based manufacturers.

Date published: January 2025 Price: $3,995.00
Contents: 26 pages of summaries (.pdf), 39 tables (.xlsx)

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