Thursday, July 23, 2026 from Stone Covering Weekly

Mohawk’s Randolph offers industry outlook & opportunities at WFCA’s Step Up Tour
By Mallory Cruise-McGrath

In addition to leadership training and team building exercises, the World Floor Covering Association’s (WFCA) Step Up Tour stop here at Carpet Exchange included an educational component as well. Jason Randolph, senior vice president of Mohawk’s professional team, provided an economic outlook, an overview of macro issues impacting the flooring industry and what retailers can do to be successful in a challenging environment.

Randolph began his presentation by sharing that while the flooring industry has indeed been experiencing changes and challenges recently, the overall economy is doing fairly well.

“GDP growth was 2 percent for the first quarter and [it’s] projected to be 2 percent for the second quarter with full year projection at 2.2 percent [growth],” he shared. “Wages are still going up — they’re not going up to keep up with the cost of inflation but they’re still going up. The inflation rate is sitting at a little over 4 percent and a lot of that has been driven up by oil prices rising.”

And unemployment remains low. “That’s still around 4 percent so that’s still relatively low in the scheme of things,” said Randolph, noting as well, “the stock market is doing phenomenal for anyone who has investments.”

But there is other good news: consumers are spending. “Despite inflation and high costs, consumers continue to spend money,” said Randolph.

Housing Highs & Lows

A challenge the flooring industry faces though is that it deeply affected by the housing market and, according to Randolph, “housing has been really tough.”

“It’s been under a lot of pressure. Mortgage rates won’t come down; they’re stuck right now at 6.5 percent. Median home prices are the highest they’ve ever been and that price is $429,000,” he said. “Just to put it into perspective: that’s up 30 percent since 2019. So, you’ve got high interest rates and high home prices impacting first-time home buyers — first- time home buyers are 40 years old. Using 2019 as a benchmark, first time homebuyers were 33. There’s a big change there.”

Seasonally adjusted from May, new home sales right now are 580,000 homes. “That represents about a 15 percent decline from 2025,” said Randolph. “There are about half a million homes for sale right now which is almost a year’s worth of inventory.”

Randolph also shared that in 2025, 55 percent of the homes built were multilevel. “If I include condos in that [number], 66 percent of new construction last year was multilevel. Therefore, “Sound abatement and noise is going to become a huge factor. There isn’t enough land to keep going out so everything’s going to go up,” he said.

Many of these economic factors have indeed had a negative impact on the flooring industry. “The flooring business is down through Q2 overall, although is not the case with Carpet Exchange, the industry is down 5 percent in dollars and 7 percent in units,” said Randolph. “Looking back at the last time we saw an increase in the industry it was 2022. From 2022 to 2026 the flooring market has contracted almost 20 percent. A lot of that though is in builder.”

Capitalizing on Opportunities

But, Randolph said, there is hope. “Just because new and existing home sales have declined — because people don’t want to leave their 3 percent mortgage rate — what is actually helping retailers is that renovation and repair business is way up,” he said. In fact, “in 2025, renovation and repair business was $508B in the U.S. Using 2019 as a benchmark, that’s up 45 percent over 2019.”

Randolph continued, “People are taking that equity and cash and putting into their existing homes. That’s why retailers have these great opportunities. The consumer reinvesting in their home is buying better goods. They’re not an entry level buyer and they know the value of their home has appreciated drastically. They’re also a more qualified buyer and a more intelligent buyer because they know what they want. That’s where you become a key element — you know how to sell that customer.”

Often during downcycles, noted Randolph, home center sales typically outpace retail. However, over the past 24 months that hasn’t happened. “That’s because home center sales target the entry level buyer and the entry level buyer is squeezed,” he said, adding also now that first-time homebuyers are in their 40s, “they have discretionary income and are putting in better goods. The home center category is squeezing.”

Mature buyers are also looking for more of a service-based experience. “They want a knowledgeable sales associate. They want someone who can walk them through the bottom line, and that’s where you have the advantage and the home centers do not,” said Randolph.

Randolph stressed though that’s important to keep in mind that value does not equate solely to price. “Value is addressing the needs of the customer and solving their problems,” he said. “We shouldn’t be afraid to sell the customer a product that fits their lifestyle needs because of price. Our Karastan line has grown every year. It’s our most expensive line but it has grown. People want the best in their home.”