WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF CERAMIC TILES PRODUZIONE E CONSUMO MONDIALE DI PIASTRELLE DI CERAMICA Luca Baraldi - MECS / Centro Studi Acimac ([email protected]) © exclusive content

WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF CERAMIC TILES PRODUZIONE E CONSUMO MONDIALE DI PIASTRELLE DI CERAMICA Luca Baraldi – MECS / Centro Studi Acimac ([email protected]) © exclusive content

October 02, 2024, from Ceramic World Web Ceramic World Review publication 2024

 

The twelfth edition of the study “World production and consumption of ceramic tiles” produced by MECS / Acimac Research Centre is due to be published in October. Consisting of almost 300 pages of charts, tables and commentary, the study provides detailed analysis of the trends occurring over the ten-year period to 2023 in terms of industry, markets, per capita consumption and export flows in geographical macro-regions and in the 76 largest tile producer, consumer, exporter and importer countries.

It includes an in-depth analysis of the breakdown of import and export volumes for each individual country by product type (porcelain stoneware, single and double-fired tiles, other materials).

Once again this year, the study will be accompanied by the publication of the volume entitled “Ceramic Tile Market Forecast Analysis 2024-2028”, which provides an updated five-year forecast for the global ceramic tile market. * * *

1) Overall, the global ceramic industry and market continued to experience a downturn in 2023, following the negative trends observed in 2022. The continuation of the general economic slowdown marked by high inflation and high interest rates led to a further cooling of global tile demand. This in turn resulted in a continued contraction in global production and import-export volumes, although the declines were less severe than those experienced in 2022.

World Manufacturing Areas Chart 01

2) Global tile production decreased by 5.5% in 2023, falling to 15,937 million sqm from 16,862 million sqm in 2022. This reduction of approximately 900 million sqm was spread across all continents except for Africa. Production in Asia fell by 5% from 12.2 to 11.6 billion sqm, equivalent to 73% of global output. China and Vietnam contributed losses of 580 million sqm and 180 million sqm respectively to this decline.

The European continent produced a total of 1,654 million sqm (10.4% of world production). The biggest contraction was in the European Union (down 18% from 1,267 million to 1,039 million sqm), with Italy and Spain both dropping below an output of 400 million sqm. Non-EU Europe held up better (615 million sqm; -4.2%), but was negatively affected by the contractions in Turkey and Russia. Production in the American continent also fell, dropping to 1,473 million sqm. North America saw a decline in output from 378 to 349 million sqm (-7.7%), while production in Central and South America fell to 1,124 million sqm, a decrease of -10.3%.

As mentioned, Africa bucked the global trend with a further increase in production in 2023 to 1,178 million sqm (+9.9%), thanks to increases in Egypt (400 million sqm), Algeria (185 million sqm), Ghana (120 million sqm) and Nigeria (125 million sqm).

3) At the same time, world tile consumption dropped from 16,455 million to 15,627 million sqm in 2023 (-5%). All areas experienced a decline, again with the exception of Africa which saw a 12.5% increase in consumption to 1,421 million sqm, while non-EU Europe remained stable at 2022 levels (636 million sqm). In Asia, consumption dropped from 11.7 to 10.9 billion sqm (-6.5%), equivalent to 70% of the world total. The European Union again experienced the biggest decline from 1,002 to 831 million sqm (-17.1%). In the Americas, consumption contracted both in Central and South America (1,217 million sqm; -1.9%) and in North America (551 million sqm; -5%).

4) In 2023, global exports continued the downward trend that began in the previous year, although the decline eased slightly, registering a drop of 2.3% compared to a 7% decrease in 2022. Total world exports amounted to 2,753 millions lion sqm, 66 million sqm less than the previous year. The contraction affected all geographical areas with the sole exception of Asia, whose exports grew by 15% from 1,354 million to 1,557 million sqm, thanks to the recovery of China (+6.2%) and the continued surge in Indian exports (+39.6%).

This contrasts with a double-digit contraction in exports from the European Union (from 965 million to 772 million sqm; -20%), non-EU Europe (from 174 million to 132 million sqm; -24.4%) and from Central and South America (from 167 million to 138 million sqm; -17.4%). North America saw a smaller decline in exports (from 48 million to 43 million sqm; -9%), while exports from African countries remained stable at 111 million sqm.

World Exporting Areas Chart 02

5) As for the export propensity of the various continents or macro-regions, the European Union remained the area with the highest export share in 2023 at 74.3% of its production. All the other areas lagged well behind: non-EU Europe exported 21.5% of its output volumes, Asia 13.4%, North and South America both 12.3% and Africa 9.4%.

The trend in import/export flows confirms the tendency for tiles to be produced close to markets. World exports stood at 17.3% of production and 17.6% of global consumption, with 61.3% consisting of exports shipped within the same geographical region as that of production (79% of South America’s exports remained in South America; 82.7% of North America’s exports were sold within the NAFTA region; 63.8% of Asia’s exports were shipped to other Asian countries; 90% of African exports remained in Africa). The European Union continued to be a partial exception with 46.4% of its exports sold in non-EU markets.

This tendency is further underscored by the fact that each continent’s contributions to world production and consumption are fairly similar. In 2023, Asia accounted for 73% of global production and 70% of consumption, while the corresponding figures for Europe (EU + non-EU) were 10.4% and 9.4%, the Americas 9.3% and 11.3% and Africa 7.4% and 9.1%.

Top Manufacturing Countries Chart 03

6) China, the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of ceramic tiles, experienced a further decline in its production and sales volumes in 2023.

According to the China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association, the contraction in domestic and export demand has forced Chinese companies to scale back their output to no more than 50% of the country’s installed capacity of around 12.6 billion sqm. According to the country’s national trade association, China’s output fell by 8% in 2023 from 7,312 to 6,730 million sqm, equivalent to 42.2% of global production. Domestic consumption fell by 9.2% from 6,737 million to 6,118 million sqm, equivalent to 39% of total world tile consumption.

There were a total of 1,022 ceramic tile producer companies in business at the end of 2023, 4 fewer than in 2022. Following ten consecutive years of decline, China’s exports saw a recovery for the first time in 2023, increasing by 6.2% to 615 million sqm. This volume represented 9% of China’s domestic production and accounted for 22% of global tile exports. As a result, China maintained its supremacy as the world’s largest exporter of tiles, a position threatened by the rapid growth of India.

This strong performance was driven almost exclusively by growth in sales in Latin America (74 million sqm, an increase of 53% compared to 2022) and in Africa (48 million sqm, 6 million sqm more than in 2022). Meanwhile, sales in the Asian continent remained steady at 438.6 million sqm, accounting for 71% of China’s total exports. In 2023, no fewer than 13 of the top 20 markets for Chinese ceramic tiles were in Asia, led by the Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. Australia, the sixth largest market, maintained stable levels of Chinese imports at 30 million sqm.

7) In 2023, India maintained its position as the second largest tile producer and consumer country, while also overtaking Spain as the world’s second largest exporter. Although domestic tile demand remained lukewarm (domestic consumption fell by 2.9% to 1,700 million sqm), India’s production rose to 2,450 million sqm. This 6.5% increase compared to 2022 represents the biggest increase of any of the world’s major tile producer countries. The recovery in production was driven by the astonishing surge in exports, which grew by 39.6% from 422 million to 589 million sqm, just a short way behind China. India’s share of total world exports increased from 15% in 2022 to 21.4% in 2023, while exports as a percentage of domestic production rose from 18% to 24%.

The value of exports reached €2,254 million (+28%), corresponding to an average selling price of 3.8 €/sqm, the lowest of any of the major exporting countries. In 2023, Asian markets continued to absorb the largest share of Indian exports (42.3% of total volumes), but it was outside Asia that India achieved the biggest growth. Africa was the second largest export region (+68.8% in volume and +45.5% in value), followed by North America and Mexico (65.4 million sqm) and the European Union where exports reached almost 60 million sqm (+75%); exports to South America and non-EU Europe more than doubled.

The ranking of India’s top countries of export underwent a number of changes in 2023 compared to 2022. The top 10 continued to be led by the USA (35.3 million sqm; +25.5%), followed by the United Arab Emirates (34 million sqm; +36%), Iraq (32.6 million sqm; +26%), Mexico (27 million sqm; +128.5%) and Kuwait (25 million sqm; +27%). In the space of a year, India more than doubled its exports to Russia (+127.7%), Israel (+145.6%) and South Africa (+123%), which ranked sixth, seventh and ninth respectively. The only one of India’s top ten markets to see a contraction was Saudi Arabia (18 million sqm; -26%), where import duties on Indian tiles have been in place for three years. On the subject of import duties, a Federal Government investigation is currently underway in the US following the petition f iled last April by the Coalition for Fair Trade in Ceramic Tile requesting the introduction of anti-dumping duties (between 400% and 800%) and countervailing duties on tile imports from India, with retroactive effect from May 2024.

Top Consumption Countries Chart 04

Top Exporting Countries Chart 05

8) Brazil, the world’s third largest producer and consumer country, experienced a sharp decline in production in 2023 for the second consecutive year, dropping from 927 million sqm to 793 million sqm (-14.5%), in response to a contraction in both domestic sales and exports. Domestic demand fell by 5.7% to 694 million sqm, while exports dropped to 89 million sqm (-21.8%), with contractions observed in all destination markets. The USA remained Brazil’s largest export market with sales of 16 million sqm (-21.4%). The value of Brazilian exports fell to €362 million (-23.6%), with an average selling price of €4.1/sqm. The trade association Anfacer is predicting a partial recovery in both exports (+6.6%) and domestic sales (+3%) in 2024.

9) Spain, Europe’s largest producer and the world’s third largest exporter, experienced a severe decline in production in 2023, dropping from 500 million to 394 million sqm (-21.2%). As a result, it fell to eighth place among the world’s largest producer countries. According to data published by the country’s national trade association Ascer, national consumption fell for the second year running, from 159 million to 135 million sqm (-15%) and was almost entirely covered by domestic production. Exports also fell sharply from 431 million to 344 million sqm (-20%), equivalent to 87% of national production. The Spanish tile industry’s total sales revenue dropped to €4.86 billion (-14.3%), of which €1,300 million was generated by domestic sales (-7%) and €3,553 million by exports (-16.6%) at an average selling price of €10.3/sqm. Internationally, France remained the leading export market in volume (44.7 million sqm; -10.3%) and second in value (€455 million; -5.7%), followed by the United States with 36 million sqm (-9.7%) and a value of €456 million (-11.6%), the UK (17.6 million sqm; -25.3% to a value of €208 million; -18.5%), Italy (17 million sqm; -11.2%, to a value of €185 million; -4.8%), and Morocco (15.3 million sqm; -13.8%). Considering macro-regions, Europe accounted for 49.5% of Spain’s exports by volume, Asia for 15.2%, Africa for 14.1%, North America for 13.4% and South America for 7.2%. In the first half of 2024, Spanish exports contracted by 5.5% in volume and 7.1% in value.

Top Importing Countries Chart 06

10) Italy also saw a double-digit decline in production in 2023, dropping to ninth place among the world’s largest producer countries but remaining the world’s fourth largest exporter in volume and the leader in terms of value. The 125 companies in the sector produced a total of 373.7 million sqm, a 13.3% decline from the 431 million sqm recorded in 2022 in response to a sharp fall in market demand. Total sales dropped to 369.2 million sqm (down 17.8% on 2022, a fall of around 80 million sqm), generating revenue of €6.2 billion (down 14.1% on the €7.2 billion of 2022). Domestic sales fell to 84.4 million sqm (-9%), generating revenue of €1,126 million at an average selling price of €13.3/sqm. Including imports (32.6 million sqm), national consumption totalled 117 million sqm (-8.6%). Exports, accounting for 76% of production, fell by 20.1% to 284.8 million sqm, generating revenue of €5 billion (down 15.4% compared to 2022) thanks to an increase in average selling price from €16.8/sqm to €17.7/sqm. The contraction affected all the main destination markets for Italian tiles, the top ten being Germany (43.4 million sqm; -30.2%), France (42.5 million sqm; -17.2%), the US (30 million sqm; -14.8%), Austria (9 million sqm; -29%), Belgium (8.5 million sqm; -30%), Switzerland (8.2 million sqm; -19%), the UK (7.7 million sqm; -21%), the Netherlands (7.3 million sqm; -26%), Canada (-23%) and Croatia (-10%), both 6.8 million sqm. In terms of macro-regions, sales in Europe fell from 248 million to 192 million sqm, including 165 million sqm in EU countries (-23%). Sales in North America also fell by 7 million sqm (38 million sqm; -16.6%), while exports to Asia dropped from 36.6 million to 31.7 million sqm. In the first five months of 2024, Italian exports grew by 2.8% in volume, but declined by 3.1% in value.

11) The two Asian giants China and India and the two largest European producer countries Spain and Italy together accounted for a total of 66.5% of world exports last year. Adding in the other 6 major exporting countries brings the figure to 84.9%, similar to that of 2022. Spain and Italy maintained the highest export shares at 87% and 76% of national production respectively, followed by Poland at 53%, Iran at 45%, India at 24%, Turkey at 21%, Mexico at 14%, Brazil at 11% and China at just 9%. Italy also maintained its leadership position in terms of average selling price at 17.7 €/sqm, followed by Spain at 10.3 €/sqm, Poland at 10 €/sqm, Turkey at 8 €/sqm, China at 6.9 €/sqm and India at 3.8 €/sqm.

12) Indonesia and Vietnam in the Far East and Iran in the Middle East continued to rank amongst the largest producer countries in 2023. Production in Indonesia fell by 4% to 413 million sqm and consumption rose to 495 million sqm (+1.2%), partly met by imports (86 million sqm; +11.8%), almost entirely from China. Exports were very low at just 10.7 million sqm.

Vietnam saw a bigger decline in production, which fell to 397 million sqm (-31%) in line with the drop in domestic demand to 375 million sqm. Exports amounted to approximately 38.5 million sqm and imports around 17 million sqm.

In Iran, the output of the 142 active factories fell from 480 million to 450 million sqm (-6.3%). Domestic consumption stood at less than 200 million sqm, while exports increased by 4.5% to 203 million sqm, of which more than 70% was sold in Iraq.

13) Turkey, the world’s tenth largest producer and seventh largest exporter, produced 372 million sqm in 2023 (-3.4%), This almost entirely covered domestic demand, which rose to 264 million sqm (+1.5%). Exports fell sharply for the second year running, from 127 million to 79 million sqm (-38%), generating revenue of €632 million, with an average selling price of 8 €/sqm. Turkish exports were mainly spread out over three macro-regions: 49% in Europe (38.6 million sqm; -40%), including 27 million sqm in the EU (-43%); 23.5% in the NAFTA region (18.6 million sqm; -34%); and 21.3% in the Middle East and Asia (16.8 million sqm; -39.4%). The USA remained Turkey’s largest export market (15.2 million sqm; -31%), followed by Germany (10 million sqm; -49%), and the UK (6.7 million sqm; -40%).

14) In 2023, the 10 largest importing countries imported a total of 1,014 million sqm (down 3% on 2022), accounting for 36.8% of global import/export flows. In most cases, imports made up over 70% of total sales, with peaks of 98% in Iraq and Germany, 95% in Israel and 94% in France. Three of the top ten importing countries recorded an increase in imports in 2023: Iraq (188 million sqm; +8.5%), Indonesia (86 million sqm; +11.8%) and Russia (60 million sqm; +41.7%). The two largest exporters to Russia were India (23 million sqm) and Belarus (19 million sqm).

15) While remaining the world’s largest tile importer country, in 2023 the United States saw a 4.8% decrease in imports to 195 million sqm, equivalent to 73.8% of domestic consumption (264 million sqm; -7.4%). No less than 85.5% of US imports originated from the 6 largest exporter countries: India (36.9 million sqm; +31.3%), Spain (36 million sqm; -9.7%), Mexico (31 million sqm; -7.8%), Italy (30 million sqm; -14.8%), Brazil (17 million sqm; -17.7%) and Turkey (15 million sqm; -31.2%).

Customs data for the first half of 2024 show no signs of a recovery in US tile imports, which fell by 1% in volume and 3.9% in value between January and June. India remained the top supplier to the United States in the first six months of the year with 20.5 million sqm (+13.5% over the first half of 2023). Spain also saw a recovery (+7.8% in volume and -4% in value), as did Italy (+9.6% in volume and +1.6% in value). Mexico, Turkey, Peru and Brazil all saw declines in their exports to the US. ◼

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