Article
Joseph Lundgren Consulting US Economic Indicators Q2 2026
Tuesday, July 7, 2026 from Ceramic Tile Distributors Association (CTDA)
Economic Indicators June 2026
General Economy
Gain valuable insights into the latest U.S. economic trends and what they mean for the ceramic tile industry. This quarterly report from Joseph Lundgren Consulting covers key indicators including GDP, inflation, housing, remodeling activity, commercial construction, and tile market forecasts to help you stay informed and plan ahead.
U.S. GDP Growth
The U.S. economy continues to grow, just at a slower pace than we’ve become accustomed to. We’re not in a recession, but we’re also not seeing the strong growth needed to accelerate demand.
GDP Global Comparison
Most developed economies are growing slowly, while emerging markets continue to drive global economic expansion. The United States remains relatively resilient compared to many of its peers.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate remains historically low, but hiring activity has slowed considerably. Companies are
holding onto employees rather than aggressively expanding their workforce.
U.S. national unemployment rate
Civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
Last 4 months:
- May 2026: 4.3%
- Apr 2026: 4.3%
- Mar 2026: 4.3%
- Feb 2026: 4.4%
Key Historical U.S. Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve has started easing rates, but mortgage rates remain elevated. Until mortgage rates decline meaningfully, housing activity will likely remain constrained
Mortgage & Fed Funds
30 Year Mortgage – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
Fed Funds – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Inflation
Inflation has cooled significantly from its peak, although some categories remain elevated as we see with energy driven by the Iran War.
Selected categories (May 2026)
- Energy: 23.5
- Transportation commodities: -0.6
- Household furnishings/supplies: 2.4
Chart/historical source: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
Category source: BLS Economic Releases, CPI, Table 2 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm
Personal Savings Rate
Consumers have largely spent the savings accumulated during the pandemic and are becoming more selective with discretionary purchases
Prior months subject to revision. https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
Consumer Sentiment Index
Consumer confidence remains weak despite stable economic fundamentals. Large purchases like homes and remodeling projects are driven as much by confidence as by income.
Previous months subject to revision https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
Residential Housing Economy / Residential Remodel
Annual Housing Starts
New home construction has stabilized but remains below long-term demand. Builders continue to face affordability challenges driven primarily by financing costs.
https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/macro-economic-outlook
Housing Starts – Seasonal Trend
Seasonal housing patterns remain intact despite the slower market. Activity is stable, but there is little evidence of a significant rebound this year
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales remain near multi-year lows as homeowners stay locked into lower mortgage rates. Fewer transactions mean fewer opportunities for remodeling and flooring replacements
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495N
Existing Home Supply
Inventory levels are improving gradually but remain below historical norms. More supply helps the market, but affordability continues to limit buyer activity.
Months Supply: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSSUPUSM673N
Month-End Inventory: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSINVUSM495N
LIRA Remodeling Index
Remodeling activity remains steady as homeowners choose to improve their current homes rather than move. This continues to support flooring demand, although growth has moderated.
Leading Indication Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2026
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-areas/remodeling/lira
Factors in Harvard’s LIRA Index:
- Pending home sales
- Building material shipments
- Contractor sentiment and hours worked
- Cash out refinancing data• General economic indicators
Commercial Construction Economy
Architectural Billings Index
- The Architectural Billings Index continues to indicate a slow commercial market.
- While conditions remain soft, the industry appears to be stabilizing rather than deteriorating.
May ABI National Data
May ABI Regional Data
May ABI Sectors
May ABI Inquiries
Year Over Year ABI Trend
Commercial Lending Market
Commercial lending activity has begun improving after a difficult period. Increased financing should gradually support future commercial construction projects.
Mortgage Bankers Association commercial loan origination index
Ceramic Tile Industry
European vs US Natural Gas Prices
Energy costs remain much higher in Europe than in the United States, preserving a manufacturing cost advantage for U.S. producers. While prices have stabilized, energy remains an important cost consideration for tile manufacturers.
U.S. Ceramic Tile Market ($)
The ceramic tile market is expected to remain essentially flat this year. In a flat market, success comes from taking market share rather than relying on industry growth.
U.S. Ceramic Tile Market (SF)
Tile volumes continue to reflect a mature market with little overall growth expected. Manufacturers and distributors will need to focus on product innovation, execution, and customer service to outperform the market.
